UK heat forecast: Hypothetical weather forecast for 2050 will come true next week

The climate crisis is causing extreme weather around the world, and temperatures in northern latitudes are particularly sensitive to these changes. So in the summer of 2020, meteorologists from the UK Met Office — the UK’s official weather forecasting agency — dived into ultra-long-range climate models to see what temperatures they would predict in about three decades.

“Not a real weather forecast,” said the Met Office graphics. “Examples of Plausible Weather Based on Climate Predictions”.

Well, on Monday and Tuesday, “believable” becomes reality – 28 years earlier.

Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University in New York, noted the striking similarity between the forecast for 2050 and the forecast for early next week in the UK.

“Today, the forecast for Tuesday is strikingly almost identical for most of the country,” Simon tweetedadding in a later post that “what happens on Tuesday provides a glimpse into the future.”

In 30 years, this forecast will seem fairly typical.

Temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the UK early next week. Maximum temperatures could approach 40 degrees Celsius (about 104 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time, a forecast that prompted local meteorologists to issue a ‘red’ heat warning for the first time.

To be clear, this is going to be a really record-breaking heatwave. The country’s highest temperature ever measured was 38.7 degrees Celsius at the Cambridge Botanic Gardens in 2019.

It is also a clear sign of how quickly the climate crisis is changing our weather.
“We hoped we wouldn’t get to this point,” said Met Office climate attribution specialist Nikos Christidis. said in a statement. “Climate change has already affected the likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK. The chances of seeing 40 degree days in the UK could be 10 times higher in the current climate than in a natural climate unaffected by humans.”

According to Christidis, the chance of exceeding 40 degrees is “growing rapidly.”

It’s more than a few uncomfortable days. Extreme heat is one of the deadliest weather events – we just don’t tend to see it happening at a time when heatstroke and death are linked to underlying diseases like heart disease or respiratory disease.

As well as latest reports suggests that no more than 5% of UK homes have air conditioning to keep residents cool.
We saw a strikingly similar situation in the United States just last summer, when the Pacific Northwest suffered several days of extreme heat. Hundreds of people died in that heat. British Columbia officials noted that more than 800 “excess deaths” occurred during the heatwave – deaths that were unexpected and far from normal for that time of year.
A 'sudden drought' developed in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Massachusetts.

Unlike floods or wildfires that ravage a city, the sense of urgency about a deadly heat wave isn’t as dramatic, said Christy Eby, a climate and health researcher at the University of Washington, stressing that the heat is a “silent killer.”

“When it’s hot outside, it’s just hot outside – and so it’s a relatively silent killer,” Abi previously told CNN. “People generally don’t know or think about the risks associated with these high temperatures.”

She also said that it is important to understand that the climate is not what it was even a few years ago. The climate crisis is already affecting our lives today, and it will continue to affect the most vulnerable segments of the population.

“We are all looking forward to summer as we enjoy warmer temperatures, but there are people who are at risk in warmer temperatures,” she said. “As the climate continues to change or warmer temperatures become higher than what we experienced when we were younger, people need to pay more attention, especially to those around you.”

Rachel Ramirez of CNN contributed to this analysis.

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